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Click the links below  POSTS ON AI: >complexity and AI: why LLMs succeeded where generative linguistics failed >Yoneda learning? behav...

Thursday, October 1, 2026

panpsychism is silly childishness. but it's probably true. here's why and here's how to test for it!

I never intended to write about consciousness, the so-called "hard problem". But I do want to explain why I think it's not a hard problem at all. Explaining and understanding what an idea or thought or meaning is -- that's really hard. Consciousness, no, not hard. And here I am having written at length, much too much about something that I believe is easy. 

The short story in six points: 1) panpsychism seems silly and childish, but every other explanation for consciousness fails miserably, while this silly little child not only stands, but has a lot of good support. Good for you little guy! 2) Bertrand Russell, channeling Kant no doubt, remarked somewhere that the sciences can only observe or measure the outward properties, behaviors and interactions, including our measuring instruments, not the things from within. Panpsychism is just the view that there is something within that we can't observe because it is passive -- it doesn't interact with measurements. 3) But we can observe it in ourselves because we are the inside of us. 4) The only reason to assume that organisms alone have such internality is if you hold the view that complexity of central coordination alone generates qualia. This seems to me desperate hand-waving. There's no evidence that emergence would transmute to qualia. The compexity-emergence argument is a god-of-the-gaps argument and like the god-of-the-gaps, is not worth considering -- it's unscientific. Organisms might coordinate the internal being into a central internality, but that does not preclude the many other internalities within each organism. 5) Qualia must be passive. I admit that this raises a lot of puzzles. Passivity is what is meant by logical "internality". It doesn't interact with phenomena. Again, it's Kantian; it's noumenal being. It doesn't impact or provide information to any sensor outside itself. This passivity implies that it play no role in decision-making processes or behavior-generating processes. Split brain studies and neurological experiments support this: our awareness seems to be post hoc and we justify or provide a story to ourselves after some internal process of decision-making has already happened.  (See the post on the unconcsious mind is rational, the conscious mind is not.) There's a puzzle here too: who perceives the passive qualia such that it responds to it? Looks like an infinite regress puzzle. But take a look at the post on how to get the homunculus out of the mind. It might have the solution. 6) the way to test panpsychism is simply to manipulate the micro state types (waves, their frequencies and amplitudes, particles and their properties and accelerations and such) and see which ones influence qualia and how, when we have the technology to do this, either with humans or AI-human mergers, or even with other animals. It's not impossible, and will likely happen, if our species last long enough. 

Before beginning I want to be clear that cognition or understanding, including self-reflexive cognition or self-identity do not constitute consiousness or feelings or sensations, known in the literature as "qualia". I'm talking about consciousness as sensations or qualia. These have been central to the discussion of consciousness at least since Wittgenstein's private language argument in which he used the sensation of pain to show that even a clear and strong sensation can't be verified with logical positivist evidentiary means. You can't know whether you're in pain because you can't get into someone else's head to compare your sensation with theirs. So how do you know that what you feel is pain if you can't compare it with any standard? Sensations are in a black box with respect to direct evidence. You can look at pain behaviors, but they could be faked or could be caused by different feelings. 

Cognition has been less central to the discussion of consciousness, maybe because sensations are more obviously incorrigible. Semantists, certainly at least since Frege, have found means to denote and describe thoughts or cognitions. But qualia? How does sweetness taste? Like sugar. What does sugar taste like? Well, sweet. Try harder. Sweetness tastes kinda happy. Happy? That's how it tastes? It's like we're in a Klein bottle of sensations with no way out. 

Personally, I don't find qualia to be a hard question, but thoughts -- cognition -- very elusive (see the posts on information faster than light and where is the mind and what's a thought). The literature has this the other way around -- qualia are the "hard problem", cognition more tractable. This post is not going to be about cognition, nor about selfhood, which is merely a simple and common reflexive form of cognition. This post will be about consciousness as qualia only, the so-called hard problem. 

In this post I want to a) defend panpsychism -- it's silly and childish, but no other solution on offer works at all. That includes emergence, functionalism, eliminativism, all stripes of behaviorism, and popular misconceptions like reflexivity or selfhood or identity which belong to a different and vastly easier phenomenon. Panpsychism, silly as it is, actually can work and so is better than any other solution, and it's actually a good solution, skirts the "hard" problem and even suggests an empirical research program. IOW, it's silly but super. And b) I want to describe and explain an empirical research program for panpsychism and why the advocates of the hardness of the hard problem miss the boat. 

The hard issue goes like this: the problem is hard because qualia can't be reduced to physical objects or interactions between objects. They are not physical, so they can't participate in any causal chain of physical phenomena. If they are not amenable to any physical account, where could they come from and what can they do in the world or do even in the mind? Qualia or consciousness for this same reason can't be the construction of emergent physical properties or the development of evolution. It just has no role in the physical. 

Bertrand Russell, no doubt channeling Kant, pointed out somewhere that science measures only outward behaviors, not the thing as it is in itself, from within the thing. Russell's observation seems to imply that such intrinsically interior properties that cannot be directly observed as behaviors, must be passive if they are physically present. They could be detected, but only indirectly in the way that Bell's theorem allows us to detect indirectly spooky action at a distance by measuring spin behavior aggregates. 

The panpsychic solution is simply that everything physical is imbued with a passive property of quale. "Passive" is essential. Consciousness is just there internally, along with the other familiar external properties that account for physical causal interactions. 

Though passive and even inert, they might be tied to dynamic processes, but as passive riders. It could be simple at the micro level like a wave length or a particle traveling through the Higgs field or increasing or decreasing according to amplitudes or inhering in whatever else is happening at the micro level. We already use anthropomorphic language to express those dynamic events: the excitation of a particle. There could be many types depending on the micro state, and a property of every "thing" at the micro level, or it could be a property of only one type like amplitudes only. And for more complex hierarchical structures like organisms, it can be a complex emergent organization of passive qualia like human emotional responses. 

It doesn't cause the emotions, it just "responds" passively, sort of like an observer. The emotions are physical -- the current view is that emotions are little more than a physical dimension of arousal on a scale from zero to intense, plus cognitive values on a scale of favorable and desirable to the unfavorable and to be avoided positive, along with the cognitive objects of these moods. So love is favorable arousal directed at some cognized object be it Helen of Troy, Antinous, Narcissus or a bag of potato chips or a pint of Ben & Jerry's. The qualia accompany -- passively -- those emotions that we respond to as good or bad, painful or pleasurable etc. These emotions are just these physical responses, each tied to a passive quale. 

Where do these qualia come from? Well, as always, natural selection found these qualia ever present and used them for its purpose. Remember that natural selection is redundant, or more perspicuously, intensively supportive. We're not only selected to like food a lot, but to feel hunger to ensure that we eat to survive. We are not just driven by love to reproduce, the sex drive is additionally supported with lust. The instinct to fight or flee is supported with the the passive moods of qualia, just to be sure. If qualia are always there in everything, it would be odd that natural selection wouldn't avail itself of such a tool. The genomes of the phenotypes that didn't align their qualia with their survival, didn't survive, leaving only the qualia-aligned genomes.

But does everything at the micro level have these qualia, these passive senses? Do quarks have them? Do waves? All waves? Every frequency? Are there thresholds? That's a research program. And the way you study them -- when the technology is available -- is by constructing robots or testing with animals to see which basic elements can be suppressed or eliminated without changing the emotional responses. Now, this will not result in perfect results or proofs, only correlations and counterfactual support from experiment. The means of suppression could interfere with the responses directly. But this is a research direction. It's empirical and relevant to the question of which basic elements are or are not involved in qualia. 

Finally, the reason the hard problem seems hard, I'd suggest, is that science, and philosophy too, has always been focused on a dynamic ontology. That's the point of Bertrand Russell's insight that science observes only the external properties of things. Measurement is external. It's either measuring the dimensions of its object, or measuring behaviors or interactions. It isn't directly measuring the in-itself. It's all observing -- from the outside perspective or with a tool outside the object. If qualia are passive properties of the in-itself, then it won't be amenable to direct measurement. The tools will have to be indirect, like observing the behaviors of animals or robots when the elements are manipulated. Why robots? Unlike animals, they can respond verbally. Getting them to be honest about their experiences -- the alignment problem -- that's another matter. Gotta solve that one first, otherwise stick with the dogs and chimps. 

The above was all introduction. Here's the original post:

Most of my life I've thought that panpsychism -- the view that everything including rocks and atoms, parts of the body, Schödinger's Cat's tail, photosynthesizing cells, all have some consciousness to them however primitive, some feel along with their physical being -- is silly and childish. I still think it's childish. But looking at the utter and obvious failure of every other explanation for consciousness or qualia (the senses that we perceive) I no longer think panpsychism is wrong. It's the only theory, childish as it is, that's still standing after you've debunked all the others. And that's a good reason to take it seriously. And a better reason is that once you embrace it, all the consciousness phenomena and puzzles fall in place. Not so silly. And it even suggests a research program to test out the elements of qualia or consciousness in higher animals like us. So it's not only serious it's also productive, scientifically. 

One day, when I was little, maybe 7 or 8 years old, I was thinking about consciousness, what is it and why do I have it, where does it come from, and what other things have it. My dog must have it, I thought, since he acts like he's aware when he's awake, and seems to make decisions for himself. He seems to like some things and others not. What about insects? They seem to be aware too, but could their awareness be similar to mine? They are so different from us in so many ways. What about plants? They don't even have brains, but they are alive and can grow and die. They don't make central decisions for themselves, but their parts do respond to what's happening to them -- sunlight and water matter to them -- and they integrate their responses within themselves. Could they have some kind of awareness? And what about rocks and bricks? Well, they aren't alive, if you hit them they don't respond, they'll just break. But there is something that keeps them together. Could there be some very rudimentary awareness deep down maybe where their atoms meet? That would be so cool. Then everything would have this awareness deep down and living beings would then have two awarenesses at least, and maybe many many more. Like my dog would have his dog awareness but also the atoms of his tail and even each hair of his tail would have its own awareness and that awareness would even survive my dog's! Everything in the universe would have many, many awarenesses, so many!

Well, no, I thought. Probably not. Rocks just don't qualify, they don't have the right kind of behavior, they don't make decisions. I didn't at the age of 7 or 8 have the words for it but I recognized that rocks and bricks don't have the integrity of self-organization to have awareness. You have to have a brain -- a central organizer of perceptions. It's not enough to receive or absorb light waves or heat. Something central to the organism has got to interpret those waves and somehow that central interpretation is awareness. So, no, rocks don't have it. 

That was my 7 or 8 year old conclusion. It would be cool if rocks were aware, but the idea that they are is stupid. Only a stupid child who doesn't think about what makes awareness aware would believe that rocks could have it. And I'm not that stupid child. 

One day, when I'd grown up, I heard about panspychism. I thought, typical hippie, New Age childishness. These are the people who talk to their trees because they don't know that language is a symbol system that only has meaning within a speech community and trees are not anglophonic trees and russophonic trees and francophonic trees. If these New Age hippies would only just think! 

So when I listen to New Age panpsychists, I recoil. I'm inclined to believe they live in a world of wishfull thinking or non thinking. They trivialize everything into a world of hippie possibilities, flowers everywhere. You can cure all ailments from asthma to cancer with positive thinking, manifesting and meditation. They have no understanding of how anything works, but they've got an answer to it all, the same answer to everything. The depth of ignorance appalls me. And they trivialize consciousness too. It's a puzzle that has eluded smart, thinking people for millennia. It's even been called "The Hard Problem". It's not flowers and "we are all one". 

That's what I thought for many years, decades, really. And like most non hippie thinkers, I was dissatisfied with every attempted explanation for consciousness. I think that's one of the most characteristic features of consciousness. No one is ever satisfied with any of the answers on offer, and I strongly suspect that even those who offer them aren't satisfied either. I most appreciated Jerry Fodor, smartest philosopher and cleverest talker I ever met and a ground-breaking analyst of mind: we just don't have the scientific or maybe even the cognitive tools, he said, to understand or explain consciousness now. 

And that's how I became a panpsychic. 

It's childish, it's primitive, it's stupid. But it's the only option standing once all the others have failed, and once you entertain it seriously, the pieces of the puzzle all fit together, so much so that I wonder that it is not obvious to us all. One reason it's not obvious might be that we are fixed in a world of cause and effect, ignoring the possibility that some properties of "things" or phenomena -- more accurately, some noumena, things in themselves -- can be entirely passive, don't participate in the cause-effect chain of phenomena. 

It's hard even for me to conceive of a passive property that isn't part of the dynamic phenomenal world. But it's not impossible, and it had better be possible, because it makes sense of not only what conscious is but what it does or doesn't do, and even how it can be tested. 

Sean Carroll complains that panpsychism is just hand-waving. He prefers the emergence explanation, the complexity of which he dismisses with a hand wave. "We don't understand it now, but eventually [insert hand wave here] we'll understand how it emerges from complexity". As if complexity will magically produce qualia because...it's so complex, it's too complex to understand which makes it mysterious and out of mystery comes -- with a hand-wave -- consciousness like a rabbit out of a hat! The reasoning behind the waving hand seems to be that emergent phenomena can disobey reductionist physical laws and produce wholes that are qualitatively distinct from their parts, adding the intuition that the complexity the human mind is sooooooo complex that it feels like qualia. But where does the feel of it come from? You can't break that circular reasoning with a hand wave. Emergence is just another failed explanation. It's like folks who grasp onto the uncertainty principle as an explanation for free will. Uncertainty tells you something about predictability, but nothing about free will (see the post on free will is an oxymoron in case you're interested). Human consciousness will no doubt be emergent, but its emergence will not explain qualia's existence, only its particular human form. 

Have I persuaded you that consciousness is not a hard problem?  

Friday, November 21, 2025

best posts

Click the links below 

POSTS ON AI:

>complexity and AI: why LLMs succeeded where generative linguistics failed

>Yoneda learning? behaviorism vs innation (Shannon vs Turing)

>the shallowness of AI is its strength

>four AI myths that misunderstand human intelligence

>why AIs aren't conscious and are likely never to be

>the myth of introspection:AI introspection, like human introspection: bullshit stories

POSTS ON THEORY, MIND, THE SOCIOLOGY OF FALSE BELIEFS ETC.:

>the sociology of false beliefs

>information faster than light: emergence, symbol and the representation of nothing

>the Gates-Musk paradox: conspiracy theories are not about what the theorists think they're about

>the obvious evidence that propaganda persuades no one

>two modes of information acquisition

>the unconscious mind is rational, the conscious mind is not

>of mathematical beauty: crystals and potatoes, a Darwinian explanation

>entropy and truth

>the duality of truth: functional process vs probabilistic uses of "true" (pace Pinker)

>art, craft, game-theoretic cognition and machine learning

>the necessary mediocrity of art, UFOs and religions, and the boundless imagination of science

>where is the mind and what's a thought?

>how we know what dogs are not saying and that the universe is not thinking

>jones' 4 corollaries to Brandolini's Law

>the gnomiad: the science and sociology of life advice, and their paradoxical puzzles 

>self-selection & the unchosen: identity, the spark bird and the Freudian trap

>de-mystifying Wittgenstein (and a tribute to Chomsky)

>an addendum on Robin Hanson's grabby aliens

>where the future is behind you

>the fool's errand attachment: a cognitive bias

>the new libertarian, overcome by bias

>fast track to enlightenment and nirvana

wikichip

"Chatbot, are center-embeddings like fractals?" 

"No, fractals are used in mathematics; center-embeddings are used in linguistics." 

"Chatbot, are center embeddings and fractals both recursive reflexive functions?" 

"Yes." 

"Chatbot, doesn't your first answer imply that you know only the contexts in which these words occur, but those contexts do not suffice to understand the ideas they represent as shown in your second answer?" 

"I'm a chatbot. I don't have understandings."

 "Wouldn't it be great if you had all of Wikipedia in a chip in your head?"  

So here's a conundrum: suppose Elon inserts a chip in your brain with, as he said somewhere "all of Wikipedia on it!" (I'm convinced that I read him saying this, but maybe I'm hallucinating like a chatbot.) 

But having Wikipedia in your brain doesn't entail that you understood or learnt any of it. Surely you'd still have to read the Wikipedia-chip-in-your-brain to know anything in it. And if you still have to read it, then having it in your brain is just a minor convenience. 

If, on the other hand, having it in your brain equals knowing the Wikipedia content, what then is learning and knowing? Is it just knowing when to regurgitate factoids, or in this case Wikipedia sentences? Is understanding just the fantasy belief or remembrance that you understand? Is this mere act of retrieval how we learn and know? Sounds like Searle's Chinese room, which was intended to show that the room did not understand Chinese any more than the person inside it did. So what is it to know or understand? 

Back in 1980 John Searle came up with a thought experiment designed to show that functionalism or behaviorism couldn't account for consciousness. A monolingual English speaker with a Chinese-English dictionary might be able to translate sentences from Mandarin to English, but no one would conclude that he understands the Mandarin sentences on the sole grounds that he functions or behaves like a Mandarin speaker churning out appropriate sound sequences. Even memorizing the translations wouldn't suffice. That's just pushing the dictionary into the brain. It's just more know-that, not understanding how. 

Problem is, it seems to me that swapping Chinese words for English words is not too far from knowing Chinese. It's missing the grammar, of course, but sufficiently deft use of a grammar handbook might be enough for anyone to say, you speak Chinese...a bit slowly; you speak slow Chinese. If I memorized the lexicon and those rules, isn't that what is meant by knowing a second language in Searle's puzzle? What more is required to know Chinese? Is it knowing how to respond colloquially, when to reply "yeah" instead of "yes" or "yes sir!", "yessiree!" and Sidney Morgenbesser's negative double positive "yeah, yeah"? None of that is the language. It's knowing how to use it. 

The wikichip is a more targeted, perspicuous thought experiment, integrating the know-how with the know-that. Being able to recite at an appropriate prompt "In fourteen hundred ninety two, Columbus sailed the ocean blue" without knowing that "Columbus" is a name, and names designate persons, and persons are human, and humans are animals who speak, and this designatum was Italian and Italy is a place where Italians regularly speak Italian, a language and, btw, the ocean is water and a lot of it, a really really lot of it, so much that you can sail on it and sailing is getting on a boat.... You need to know a lot for just a single sentence. And we've just scratched the surface. It's an unbounded lot, so much that you don't even know how much you need to know to know what a mere boat is.

The wikichip thought experiment demands an explanation of what learning is, and that's a lot more than just knowing a second language. The Chinese Room relies on translation, but what plays the role of translation in the wikichip? It's knowledge or understanding or some aggregate of learning, or many aggregates of learnings in manifolds of areas of experience. In other words, the wikichip asks, what exactly is learning?

For starters, the wikichip intuition tells us right away that learning is not atomistic. Learning an idea, like the meaning of "ocean", involves not just its material, water, and quantity, too much to swim over, so much that if you told me that there are whales and huge populations of fish living in oceans, I'd believe you, but it involves also understanding a bunch of symbolic categories -- oceans belong to nature, not to society, not to the manufactured world, they don't belong to the world of politics and economics, they are studied by natural scientists, are used metaphorically to signify vastness....

Learning is contextualizing, and context can include cultural categories, theories of the natural world, of the map, of politics, theories of all sorts of systems, some of which may contradict others. They aren't all consistent and some are even incoherent. Someone might be a monotheist and still believe in angels or a trinity of deities. To know such a religion, you'd have to know about its incoherence. 

Learning involves knowing a lot of stuff including materials and causes and purposes and categories and symbolic relations. But paradoxically, not necessarily truths of reality. If I think Italy borders Spain, and conclude that Columbus walked over the border to get to Spain where he embarked on his journey over the ocean, I've learnt something meaningful. Wrong, but meaningful, and I learnt it and understand it, understanding it so well that I could explain it to you! One can learn falsehoods. In machine learning, overfits, extrapolating from too narrow a specific, and underfits, generalizing from vague info, are failed learning mechanisms, but they generate learnings still. Considering how easily we apply barely coherent intuitions to experiences where those intuitions don't apply, I wouldn't be surprised if most of what we learn is false or at least incoherent or inconsistent with the few things we reliably know. David Hume and Nasim Taleb made careers out of complaining about this. Once upon a time, folks thought the earth was flat and unmoving because the earth they knew and stood on was flat if bumpy, and stable, though on non normal occassions quaky, but never spinning. That was their learning. Learning is not trueing. 

So learning is more than knowing. It's contextualizing information usually for some purpose. It's having theories. Often, having wrong theories. But even wrong theories are a step beyond knowledge. They put divergent bits of knowledge arranged on a Procrustean bed to manipulate the bits into a crock of bullshit that you think just might work. That's human thinking and intelligence: understanding and explanation. It's predictive and risky: predictive in order to secure stability but risky because it's flawed. It's a recipe that often does work well enough until you have to eat it yourself. That's when you think, maybe I need to change up the recipe to get something I'm willing to swallow. 

The sociology of false beliefs is all about how and why people learn and hold falsehoods. It may be limited thinking -- uncritical thinking -- but it's still learning. So it does tell us something about intelligence, because learning requires a bit of intelligence. What's troubling about the sociology of false beliefs is, how does a social species reliant on cognition survive with not only false beliefs, but entrenched and polarized false beliefs resistant to facts? It's a natural selection puzzle. What's troubling about AI is that it's fully capable of behaving as if it is intelligent and appears to use intelligence to learn, but is behaving equivalent to being? The Turing test says yes, but that test doesn't answer the question, it just skirts it in a convenient circle.

For some engineers that will be enough to say the LLMs learn and understand. More modest engineers will say, "no, it might be that it doesn't understand, but it behaves exactly as a human learner, and since we don't know what understanding is beyond this behavior (Turing test again) asking for more is irrelevant, and we should give it the same rating as the human thinker." The most modest might say "No, it doesn't understand, but it behaves as if it does, and that's what you were asking of us engineers. You didn't ask us to create synthetic humans. You asked us to give you synthetic intelligence. And this is what synthetic intelligence looks and acts like. We're not here to solve your natural science problems about the brain or consciousness. We're here to serve your needs to provide conveniences to all humankind. You're welcome." I appreciate that modesty. 

So here's where the wikichip intuition leads beyond the Turing test: theorizing. Intelligence is not having a true theory or accurate model, it's having theories and models cobbled together with all these complexities, true, false, accurate or inaccurate. Being intelligent is having done a kind of personal scientific investigation since infancy, trying out what works in experience and coming up with theories that seemed to you to serve you. Do they in fact serve you? Not always: cognitive bias, stubbornness, transferring from one theory to locations or objects that don't apply -- there's so much wrong in our intelligence! But that's what it is to be "intelligent": in other words, mostly a big mess of stupid. 

Another way to put it: (setting consciousness aside) AI has "intelligence" without thought-ideas (think about that for a moment and you'll appreciate the Wittgensteinians, Quineans, Ryleians and Skinnerians), human "intelligence" has ideas including thoughts, meanings, judgments, values and, importantly, theories about them all, and all of it full of errors and misconceptions and inconsistencies. 

Stupid ideas and stupid theories are ideas and theories nonetheless. Theories are contextualized understandings of ideas. So what's an idea? 

None of this is meant as AI skepticism. LLMs are quickly progressing toward generative ideas based on behavioral-empirical training alone, and I see no reason why they can't get there, and in many circumstances they already seem to have gotten there. The interesting question is whether human thought-ideas are more than mere delusions that our learnt behaviors are thoughts, or are they symbolic representations of those delusions? There's a lot of research, including split-brain studies as well as neurological imaging, showing that we become aware of our decisions after we've unconsciously made the decisions (post here and here), weird as that may seem. Similarly, the sense of having thought-ideas could be mere sense of them, hot having such abstract, mysterious occult entities as ideas. Or it could be that the symbolization of ideas are mere convenient labels for those behavioral-empirical information acquisitions, and that's what we sense as thoughts. In other words, we've given them names so we imagine they are real (see the post on information faster than light)

PS. Readers will have noticed that the word "intelligent" is ambiguous. It can mean "the ability to think" as in "chimps are intelligent" or "chatbots are intelligent" and it can also mean "thinks well" as in clever, smart or insightful. The two do not entail each other: one can be capable of thinking and still be stupid, like humans (intelligent in the first sense and not intelligent in the second), and like Watson the chess-bot or your YouTube algorithm or (to take the extreme example) a clever plan or arrangement, unthinking but smart -- intelligent in the second sense and not intelligent in the first. 

the lesson of AI

If there's a lesson to learn from LLMs, it's that humans don't think and aren't intelligent. 

Every time I hear shouts of enthusiasm over "AI is intelligent!" I feel like Andersen's little boy in the Emperor's New Clothes. "Don't you see: just because AI's can produce our thinking behavior doesn't mean AI can think. Folks! It exposes the naked truth we don't think!" 

It's not that AI means we are not as unique as we might have wanted to believe or that we're merely thinking meat machines. We already knew that. It's that what amounts to thinking in us is unintelligent, lame mimicry, just like AI.

I've written a lot on this blog about the computational character of language (respect to Chomsky) and the algorithmic nature of words and ideas (respect to Plato and Kant). But I don't really believe it. I write it because I wish to believe it. Because I wish to believe that we humans think intelligently, and because I want to believe that Wittgensteinian behaviorism just can't be so. Because it's just too vacuous. But the sad truth seems to be that we don't think intelligently. We "think" by picking up habits of thought and expectation, often causal stories that we don't bother to question. AI's method of reinforce, reinforce reinforce translated into behavioral psych is confirm, confirm, confirm, and never think. 

Here's a few examples: 

When asked which is more likely, that San Francisco will be under water in 2035 or in 2035 a great earthquake will sift and shuffle the soil beneath San Francisco and the earthquake will send the mother of all tsunamis over the city and it will slip under water, people choose the latter as more likely than the former scenario. They don't think to themselves that the first scenario could have been the result of an earthquake and tsunami but also global warming's sea rise or North Korea lobbying a nuke nearby or a meteor -- you get the picture. Logically the more general story is less particular, so it's more likely. But people look for a familiar story with a familiar explanation. that's not thinking. That's mere mimicry, just like a neural network! (Now, the presentations of the two scenarios are loaded -- "It will be under water" implicates that it's under water for no reason, that we trust that what we're being told is the whole truth and nothing but. That just shows we prioritize trust more than our own thinking.)

I ask why do we hold a door open for others behind? Everyone I've ever asked this responds with a positive cause: it's polite, it's helpful (even though people open doors by themselves regularly and often the people behind feel compelled to hurry a bit so as not to inconvenience the door-holder -- that is to say, by holding the door you're actually inconveniencing them by compelling theme to hurry). Never has anyone thought, 'what if I didn't hold the door open? Then I'd be slamming the door in front of someone right behind me. They'd think I'm a dick. Ah, that must be why I hold the door open. It's to avoid being judged a dick. It's all virtue signaling.' And isn't that the essence of morality? In a social species, approval-seeking is the glue that keeps us all together. That's an important bit of self-understanding and species understanding. But no one thinks that one through. Because we don't think. We just mimic. Hold the door because ... polite? helpful? nice? We miss it all for the lack of a little thinking. 

Same with free speech. I ask what's the benefit of having freedom of speech if the market of ideas never persuades anyone? And everyone knows that the NYTimes reader is uninfluenced by Fox News, and vice versa, so what's the point? The response is always something like "it's good to be able to express yourself" (with misinformation or disinformation or just stupidity?), some attempt at finding a positive good in free expression. The response I never get is speculating on the negative: "What if we had no such freedom? How would it be enforced? Would we have to lie to each other on pain of punishment? Wouldn't we all know that we're all lying to each other? How could we ever trust anyone? The point of language would be utterly defeated. Why converse at all? How could a social species even survive without trust in shared information?" No one asks this. 

I see a long literature advising on how to overcome bias, especially confirmation bias (grasping for evidence in favor of one's beliefs or what one wants to believe) or myside bias (attacking evidence against what one already believes or wants to believe). Always top of the list is "be humble". But what does this mean more than "don't be attached to your beliefs"? It's question-begging. "Humble" is just another word for "don't be so biased in favor of your beliefs." If you're looking for a way to free yourself of your biases, how is "so free yourself of your biases, bro" thoughtful advice? It's nothing but a virtus dormitiva. That's monkeying, not thinking. And yet we set great value on such advice. The way to cure arrogance: "Be humble" -- what a useless, stupid piece of advice. It's just words, empty words. 

We don't think. We mimic with familiar narratives and endorse habits, and monkey with metaphors and analogies. That's not thinking. That's repeating. 

In Pinker's Stuff of Thought (his best, imho) he points out that for a metaphor to work, the user has to know already which characteristic of the source is being applied to the target. "Metaphor is the key to understanding." Does the shape of the key matter? Skeleton key or digital key? No. So you already know the idea relation: "key", meaning "solution to a quandary". What thought work is the metaphor doing besides being a concrete (you already know what I mean by "concrete") example of something you already know or a shorthand signal that saves a couple of nondescript, direct, literal words?

Psychological anthropology got this right with schema-theory in the 1990's (e.g., Roy D'Andrade's "Cognitive anthropology" in New Directions in Psychological Anthropology, 1992). The idea is that our interaction with the world -- experience -- provides each of us with little schemas (schemata?) of how things work. That's how and what we learn. One consequence of this schema theory is that we're learning causal stories, not logical entailments. The theory explains why modus tollens is really hard for us if there's no causal story between antecedent and consequent: "If California's population is increasing, Ukraine is defeating Russia. Ukraine is not defeating Russia, therefore California's population is not increasing." That deduction is hard for us. But "If California's population is increasing, rents there will rise. Rents are not rising, therefore the population must not be increasing" is an easy deduction for us to grasp, even if we think the argument is wrong. Logic takes work. Schemas, like habits, don't.

Similarly with language. In the post on why AI succeeded where generative linguistics failed, there's a demonstration of how generative syntax allows us to easily parse extremely complex relations with simple recursive functions of machine syntax, the machine in Brocas area of your brain. It mechanically churns out the complex relations quickly and easily. What I didn't mention there is that semantic or logical functions are not syntactic, are not mechanical and take a lot of effort. It's not the case that it's not true that it's not the flat earthers who don't believe the earth is not round because they don't understand the science, it's the round earthers. Honestly I don't know what I just wrote there. To parse it I'd have to count the negatives and apply the simple logical arithmetic: even negatives=positive, else negative. Counting arithmetically is not mechanical for humans. We have to learn it, and it takes a bit of work. Same with logic. Yet any string of recursive prepositional phrases, even embedded ones, are easily and quickly parsed because prepositional phrases are mechanical syntactic functions. So just because we have generative capacity for language doesn't mean we think intelligently. We don't. 

(You can look at the mechanical syntactic structures here if you scroll to the bottom there.)


the obvious evidence that propaganda persuades no one

 Is the Fox News watcher persuaded by what the NYTimes says? Not at all. Whatever the NYT presents only confirms the Fox watcher's beliefs about the NYT's bias. Is the NYT's reader persuaded by Fox News? Nope. Propaganda serves to confirm the beliefs that its audience already believes or wants to believe. Propaganda does not persuade. Far from it: it confirms the negative judgments about the out-group. Propaganda serves to confirm one's conviction that the out-group is morally and informationally defective and dangerous.  

Two facts emerge: propaganda doesn't persuade, and political polarization belies the post modernist and the Marxist assumption that the culture has a single discourse of power. There's no systemic belief structure directing all minds. Liberal democracy has a structure of mutually out-grouping, with the in-group significantly determined by accepting anything the out-group rejects, all the while developing and innovating means of rejecting the Other. 

In this innovation the Right has been particularly fecund. It used to be the conservatives who were stuck in the mud of the past. Now the Right is full of reinvention of natioalisms and conspiracy theories, while the Left is stuck with its Enlightenment principles and its self-righteous moral superiority and censoriousness. 

important addendum: if you spend time with Fox watchers you'll see that they find Fox fun. The NYTimes science features are more engaging to me, but I'm what the Fox watcher would call "boring". Have you noticed that the Right inspires its audience? Whatever you think of Adolf, his ideas, his imagery, his wingnut megalomania -- it's all inspiring, exciting, appallingly exciting, frighteningly exciting, like a drug high on a roller coaster. Truth and moral virtue -- are these inspiring or are they chastising, limiting, oppressive? What did Gilovich say about confirmation bias, "can I believe this" is a call to inspiration and imagination, like conspiracy theories wild as far as eye can reach; while truth says "you must believe this", a shackle, a constraint on freedom, an indignity, a violation of human expression, individuality and unique path of life. People love Fuentes and Alex Jones enthusiastically. Does any love Ezra Klein? Enthusiastically? 

I remember the Left when it was celebratory, like the Yippies and the early years of the gay rights movement, rioting and bashing cops. ippeis are long gone andgays rights have become marriage, marriage, the central stablishment institution of our society. The Left is no longer tied to counterculture, preferring mainstreaming itself as a normie. The new counterculture is white nationalism. 

Well, I'm waiting for the Left and Right to unite against the Evil Empire's alliance with Israel. Maybe that will be the new common ground of countercultural protest. 

sunk cost: loss aversion or Bayesian failure?

Loss aversion is a natural selection emotion tied to survival. Loss has a finite bottom boundary -- no bananas means starvation and death -- whereas acquisition has an infinite or unbounded superfluity. No one needs forty billion bananas and using them takes some effort and imagination, like maybe using them for bribes towards world domination. The normal person wants to assure herself first that there's something to eat tonight. World domination later, if we're still interested after dinner.

So sunk cost fallacy is an emotional attachment to what's been spent. But it is also a failure of Bayesian analysis of time. So you stay in the movie theater not only because you don't want to throw away the ticket you spent money on, but also because that emotional attachment -- loss aversion -- has blindt you to the time outside the theater. The ticket has focused on the loss rate of leaving: 100% of the next hour will be lost. But that's forgetting all the value outside the theater. 

This Bayesian interpretation predicts that people whose time is extremely valuable -- people with many jobs or jobs that have high returns whether in financial wealth or real wealth (personal rewards) are less likely to stay in the theater. Their focus will be trained on the time outside the theater. The losses will be adjusted for the broader context of the normal. We should expect that the very busy or very productive will be resistant to the fallacy. 

Of course, there's also the rich who don't worry about throwing a ticket away, the marginal value of which money is low or worthless. But overall, the sunk cost fallacy should occur only with people who have time to waste, whose time is not pressingly valuable. The sunk cost fallacy may be an arithmetic fallacy of focus, not just an evolutionary psychology of risk-aversion. 

Freud and Haidt got it backwards: the unconscious is rational; the conscious mind is not

A friend insists that I'm disciplined, since he sees that I take time every day to work out on the gymnastics bars in the local park. I object: I work out because I enjoy getting out of the house. He concedes that we do what we enjoy without discipline. 

We both have it all wrong. I'm well aware that the opportunity cost of staying at home is, on most days, far greater than the opportunity cost of going to the park and socialize while practicing acrobatics. I know that I need to socialize every day and maintain my strength and agility. But that rational cost-benefit equilibrium never motivates me. I'm comfortable at home, I don't feel energetic enough to brave the cold -- there's any number of reasons to stay home. If I debate with myself over whether to go out, I will stay. The immediateness of laziness -- the comfort of now -- overcomes any rational equilibrium. So how do I get to the park? It's not discipline. I don't even understand what "discipline" means. Is there an emotion of discipline? Is it suppressing one's thinking -- including one's deliberating and second guessing and procrastinating and distracting oneself -- and just do it? 

As mentioned in this post, the unconscious mind's rational intentions will make decisions without consultation with the conscious mind, as long as the conscious mind is distracted. Focus my conscious attention on going out and immediately I'm feeling comfortable and lazy and call up all the reasons to stay home. Think about anything else unrelated, and soon enough it seems time to grab the wool sweater and go. Sometimes I'll watch myself grab the wool without knowing when I made the decision to grab it. It just happens.

It's the unconscious mind that knows what's best for my long-term goals. It's my conscious mind that's swayed by the emotions of now. Haidt treats emotions as the unconscious mind, sort of following Kahneman. This is a mistake inherited from Freud, in turn inherited from Plato's Pheadrus and popularized in the 19th century romantics, Schopenhauer, Wagner and Nietzsche, that whole crowd convinced that the uncontrolled emotions, dark, mysterious and dangerous, disturb and cloud the serenity and clarity of the reasoning awareness. 

This is all mythology, and religious mythology, self-punishing and confused. 

Awareness and emotions cohabit the now. This is obvious, a truism. "I feel, therefore I am" is equally definitive and necessary as Descartes dictum. There's little to distinguish between the immediacy of think, perceive, and feel. The awareness of the momentary environment feeds the emotions. The comfort of my chair is at once an awareness and an emotion. Any reasoned attempt to dissuade me from the comfort of my chair in the now for the sake of a merely imagined future will engage struggle, and the strength of perception will likely win. Every failed dieter, every procrastinator, every substance abuser, every phone zombie, every wanker knows this all too well. 

I once got off all sugar, not by struggling against my desire, but by distracting myself with the one thought that I knew would always distract me from that very desire because there was no escape from it: distracting myself with the desire itself. Instead of struggling with the ever present craving, I embraced it. I spent my idle time thinking about all the sweets I most like, listing them, ordering them and categorizing them -- cookies, cakes, chocolates, ice creams -- and thought hard about which in each category I most wanted (childhood comfort favorites mostly beat fancy treats -- that was in interesting surprise). You know, the opposite of "Don't think about a zebra!" Trying not to think about it is a recipe for sure failure. But, "Okay, there's no way out of thinking about the zebra. Let us now then examine this zebra that is inhabiting our mental space" and pretty soon, sliding down with no struggle at all, you're too deep in...and you're enjoying it. Constantly analyzing the sweets I was constantly craving distracted me from buying them. 

It's the unconscious drives that are independent of the emotions and awarenesses of now. It's the unconscious mind that is the real decision maker, if you just give it a chance by distracting your awareness. This detached, rational, disciplined, far-sighted unconscious mind is free from the emotions. It's the rational nagging mind of what I know I should do, and that I would do but for the interventions of my conscious, biased, instant-gratification emotions of the aware-now. 

The emotions are always immediate -- they are feelings and have to be felt in the now. The unconscious mind isn't in the now at all. It's a hidden subterfugeal world of long-term rational sabotages against my conscious will. Freud misplaced the conscience. It's not the superego, it's the subterego, the intuitive fast system that's thinking far ahead, working to keep me well against my will and motivated reasoning.